FALCON POWERS – The details surrounding the Israeli ground maneuvers in southern Lebanon remain obscured. However, former Israeli Air Force commander Brigadier General (Res.) Ilan Biton acknowledged that Hezbollah still retains its core strength and missile capabilities.
In a statement to Israeli channel i24 News, Biton warned, “Hezbollah can threaten not only the residents of the north but all of Israel as well.” He noted that Hezbollah aims to exhaust Israel over a prolonged period through changing routines, pointing out that “the sirens in the north have become a tense morning routine, managed with much intelligence by Hezbollah, as they alter the pace, locations, and number of missiles.”
For his part, retired General Ziv of the Israeli army confirmed that “Hezbollah has recovered and returned to its normal state, despite the strikes it has received.” Additionally, retired Colonel Jack Neria remarked that “fighters in Lebanon allow the Israeli army to advance in preparation for attacking and ambushing them.”
In a related context, former Mossad chief Tamir Pardo wrote in an article published on Channel 12’s website that “up until now, the Israeli government demands a ‘safe zone’ up to the Litani River as a fait accompli, because the safety of the residents is conditional on the absence of Hezbollah south of the river. There is no greater mistake than this.”
In the article, which was reported by the Palestinian Studies Foundation, he noted that “from now on, Hezbollah is indicating the picture of the next war. Since the beginning of the ground maneuvers, the party has moved the war to the close depth (from Nahariya to the Haifa area). The heavy firing, using various tools, has turned this area into a war zone. We must say that choosing this solution provides only partial safety from a ground invasion along the contact line a few kilometers from the border, and could turn a third of the country into a war zone.”
Moreover, Pardo explained that “dealing with the threat of Hezbollah before the October 7 war was seen as a threat of fire. The army and the government gave citizens the impression that it could not transfer the battle to our territories without tunnels penetrating the border, and politicians and professionals focused on warning of the great destruction of strategic infrastructure in all areas. The October conflict revealed the hidden danger of a ground invasion, and occupying the western Negev for an entire day turned this danger, rightfully, into a nightmare. It is understood, implicitly, that removing the Radwan force from the northern border is a condition for any future agreement.”
He continued, “Inexplicably, the Litani River has become the security border. This was true over a decade ago when the party’s firepower was less than it is today, and without maneuver capabilities. To avoid being misled, these few kilometers are neither a safe area nor even the minimum of that for the residents of the north, neither in terms of firepower nor rapid ground maneuvering.”
Pardo emphasized that “moreover, firing into the ‘close depth’ as far as Haifa has turned this entire area into a legitimate war zone. If we do not radically change our view regarding the arrangements required, we will find ourselves replacing Kiryat Shmona and Hanitah and Safed with Kfar Masrik and Kiryat Bialik, which are situated on the main road between Akko and Haifa.”
He added, “France and the United States are today ready to push for an end to the war at a price that Israel should not accept. The Israeli government, for unjustified reasons, is willing to concede in the area of Hezbollah’s continued autonomous operations in Lebanon, effectively agreeing to Iran’s operational autonomy from within Lebanon.”
He continued, “Israel must clarify to Lebanon that it is one state with one army. No decision in the Security Council will matter if the international community allows Hezbollah to continue accumulating power. The only alternative to not agreeing on one state, one flag, and one army is the deployment of responsible military forces, with powers in all Lebanese areas, including the border crossings.”
The former Mossad chief concluded by saying, “The deployment of military forces from France, the United States, and other Western countries, given the authority to control land, sea, and air border crossings, and to raid any suspected site to thwart it, is the only thing that can achieve security. This is all an alternative to the responsibility of the Lebanese government for its territory.”
Open questions remain: Will Hezbollah agree to the plan from Israel and the United States? Will Iran accept it? More importantly, has the entity concluded that power has its limits and that the ground invasion has failed?
