FALCON POWERS – Israeli Channel 12 reported, after obtaining special permission from the Israeli military censor to publish, that the Israeli military strike against Iran will be very severe, and decision-makers in Tel Aviv will carry it out despite the risks of significant damage to high-rise buildings deep within the state.
In this context, the Israeli Defense Minister stated last Wednesday during his visit to the secret unit 9900, which operates in intelligence gathering within the Israeli army, that after receiving a comprehensive briefing on the security situation in the Middle East, he told the unit’s members that “the Iranian attack two Tuesdays ago was difficult, but at the same time it was not accurate or specific. The Iranian missiles did not hit Israeli military bases or airport runways. In contrast, the attack we will launch against Iran will be lethal, precise, and, most importantly, it will be surprising. The Iranians will not understand where the attack is coming from or how.”
He continued, “The Iranians will not understand how this lethal attack was carried out against them,” while noting that “the Israeli Air Force, equipped with precise intelligence, will direct the fatal blow to Iran, because the Middle East is now certain that anyone who dares to attack Israel will pay a heavy price.”
Despite his personal, political, and security disagreements with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Defense Minister emphasized that in the case of what he called punishing Iran for its aggressiveness and missile strikes against Israel, there is complete unity starting from the ordinary soldier through the officers to the Chief of Staff of the Israeli army, General Herzi Halevi. “We are all united in the mission to strike Iran,” he said.
In relation to this, Israeli military historian Professor Avner Cohen stated in an article published in Haaretz that “in the best-case scenario, Israel can strike the sensitive ‘choke point’ of the Iranian nuclear project, but even in this case, we should not deceive ourselves. Most likely, Israel can gain time with a single strike, and according to military experts, it is expected to delay the project by a year or half a year at most.”
The professor stressed that “the cost of gaining this time will be high, leading to a war of attrition between Israel and Iran that could last weeks or even months. Does Israel want or is it capable of entering such a war?”
The Israeli researcher continued in his article, “Many believe that Iran is very close to the bomb because it has not completed all the necessary work to produce it. Those who see things this way do not understand the dynamics of the nuclear industry in Iran.”
He added, “Those who believe that the Iranians have not completed the bomb’s production because they have not finished the technical work are mistaken. Iran is still hesitating, politically or religiously, regarding the production of the bomb and its transformation into a nuclear state in every sense of the word. If it wanted to and decided to become a nuclear state, it could achieve its goal in a short time, but it prefers to remain a state on the threshold of nuclear capability.”
In his estimation, “Iran is close to the threshold, not only in terms of the amount of fissile material required for the bomb but also in terms of completing all the work on the weapon system. I estimate that today, Iran is very close to the bomb, just weeks or even days away.”
The professor explained: “Here comes the second and more important argument against an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Such an attack will not significantly disrupt Iran’s nuclear project, nor will it destroy or dismantle it; rather, it could be the final message before Iran makes the political decision to become a full nuclear state.”
He pointed out that “in the past, the Iranians announced that if attacked by Israel, they would withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty and transform into a nuclear state. I suggest not to underestimate these statements.”
The Israeli military historian concluded his article, which was translated into Arabic by the Palestinian Studies Institute: “The paradox is that what encourages Israelis to attack, namely the desire to prevent Iran from becoming nuclear, is what will ensure that Iran crosses the threshold, conducts a test, and becomes a nuclear state. Israel will certainly respond with a similar step, and the conflict between Israel and the Iranian axis will become nuclear; this scenario is catastrophic.”
